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Daily Insight - Dec 18, 2009 3:30 pm As previously announced, we are off-line for the Christmas holidays from December 21 to January 1, 2010 inclusive and will return on Monday, January 4, 2010. Markets are finding a footing on their supporting technical trendlines and continuing their consolidations. So unless the upper or lower boundary of the November/December consolidation is decisively breached, more of the same sloppiness and mixed markets are expected. "Day Trader" made a couple of points with BIDU and had no trades with NTAP as it was cut to Neutral at Goldman and removed from their 'Conviction Buy' list before the opening bell. Weekly Summary - Friday Dec 18, 2009 Broad market index SPX.X remains in its consolidation and a decisive break of the upper line at 1115.00 or the lower one at 1086.00 should dictate the next immediate direction. Seen below is how until this event transpires, more of the same sideways action is anticipated.
Tech and bio-tech index COMPX is shown below on the verge of breaking higher while sporting an ascending triangle. Conversely, a push to new 52-week highs is expected along with a Day-1 breakout spike.
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| View from the Top |
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"View from the Top" are macro comments made on a timely basis about the markets or significant "items of interest" during the trading year. These "non-technical" observations are not guaranteed to be right and is the personal outlook of our head-trader, (with over 30 years experience in the markets), at that point in time. September 30, 2009. We have sold GE today at 16.50 as our last longer-term position that was established in March 2009 for a gain of $6.57, (cost was $9.93), or just over 66%. We are weary of the marketplace as everybody is getting bullish, no large pockets of jobs are created, unemployment insurance will soon run out after a year's run, financial reforms are still elusive and yet to be passed, and the economy remains weak and at times, contracting. [WL] August 14, 2009. Foreclosure activity jumped 7 percent in July from June and 32 percent from a year earlier as one in every 355 households with a loan got a foreclosure filing was the analysis from RealtyTrac. These filings, which include notices of default, auction and bank repossession, have escalated with unemployment. The dilemma is that with an absence of job creations either by the public sector or President Obama's relief programs, unemployment benefits are starting to run out for the individual and that can only increase foreclosures. These benefits basically go on for 46-to-79 weeks in different states, ( http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/unemployment_benefits/index.html ), and is destined to run out between the last quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010 for the unemployed that started their claims in spring/summer of 2008; (in July 2009, the number of people collecting unemployment benefits is over 6 million). So like the train that derailed last year, this train might run also out of gas if the job numbers do not improve. Conversely, we all know how many companies went bankrupt, cut cost, or made layoffs during the past year, (52-weeks), but could we even count on one hand who has created jobs during this time? Which leads to the conclusion that if the consumer is still reeling and not purchasing goods and services, (consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP), current markets that have discounted the end of the recession have seemingly not discounted an economy going back into a recession! [WL] June 23, 2009. Core position AXP was stopped out yesterday at $23.25 for a profit of $10.42 or plus 81% as the stock was purchased for $12.83 on March 30, 2009. We have now sold 4 out of our 5 positions, will monitor them for a future repurchase, and are keeping GE for now. [WL] |
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DisclaimersWe have to use actual market quotations to illustrate exactly what we are doing and why we are doing it. Otherwise, the diaries and its entries of daytrader1.com will be misleading and not educational. The spirit of this website is to teach the market daytrader how to trade successfully by using real-time quotes and any attempt to duplicate these trades is not a guarantee to make money. These trades are our teaching "tools" and at the end, are only examples. Copying these trades are in fact beyond our control and we are not responsible for any trading losses borne out from this type of action. |